全球新冠肺炎疫情下中国对外贸易和出口替代效应研究

Research on China’s Foreign Trade and Export Substitution Effect under the Influence of Global COVID-19

新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,全球产业链、供应链受到严重冲击,国际贸易不稳定性不确定性加大。在此背景下,中国坚持统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展,进出口贸易实现逆势增长,货物贸易总额占全球份额持续提升,成为全球贸易的“稳定器”。本文以中国进出口为研究对象,以贸易伙伴国新增确诊病例数和政策响应严厉指数为核心变量构建贸易引力模型,采用高维固定效应回归方法,定量测算新冠肺炎疫情及政府防控政策对中国进出口的影响。研究结果表明,在疫情冲击下出口目的国(地区)进口需求增长对中国出口具有拉动作用,欧美地区对中国的进口依赖程度较强。同时外部疫情对中国进口的影响并不显著,显示中国进口多元化格局进一步深化。

Since the COVID-19 broke out, the global industrial chain and supply chain have been severely impacted, the instability and uncertainty of international trade have increased. Against this background, China insists on the implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures in tandem with those aimed at getting the economy and society back to normal, China’s foreign trade bucked the trend and developed fairly rapidly, and its share of total trade volume in the world continued to rise, becoming the "stabilizer" of global trade. In this paper, we take China’s import and export as the research object. On the basis of descriptive analysis, we build a trade gravity model with the COVID-19 new confirmed cases and the COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index of trade partners as the core variables, use high-dimensional fixed effect regression method, measure the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the government’s prevention and control policies on China’s imports and exports, and provide support for measuring and evaluating the contribution of "Made in China" to global supply chain and trade stability under the COVID-19 epidemic. The results show that the increase in import demand of export destination countries(regions) affected by the epidemic has a pulling effect on China’s exports. Under the impact of the epidemic,Europe and the United States have a strong dependence on China’s imports. It also shows that the impact of overseas epidemics on China’s imports is not significant, and China’s imports are further diversified.