当前中美CPI走势差异的分析与研判

Analysis of the Discrepancy in the Current CPI Trend between China and the US

本文对中美CPI长期发展趋势、当前美国CPI高涨的主要原因、两国CPI指数构建方法异同等方面进行了深入分析。研究结果表明,导致当前中美CPI走势差异的主要原因在于新冠肺炎疫情及俄乌冲突对两国的影响不同,新冠肺炎疫情影响美国市场供给不足、经济停滞,从而实施“无上限”量化宽松政策,加之全球能源价格大涨,多种因素叠加导致当前美国CPI高涨。中国则与之相反,市场供应充足、货币政策稳定、能源价格影响有效管控,CPI涨幅温和。随着美国的加息缩表等紧缩政策和能源价格趋稳,美国CPI涨幅有望回落,中美CPI差异将逐步缩小。本文将为分析和研判当前中国和全球物价走势及经济形势提供参考。

Since 2021, the United States CPI has kept rising. In 2022, the upward tendency has still continued, breaking through "8" and "9" in a row, and constantly set new highs in the past 40 years. In the same period, China’s price rise has been relatively moderate, operating within the regulatory range of no more than 3%. As the two largest economies in the world, the CPI trends differ significantly, attracting attention from all parties. This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the long-term development trend of China and US CPI, the main reasons for the current high US CPI, and the similarities and differences in the construction of the CPI index between the two countries. The research results show that the main reasons for the differences in the current CPI trend between China and the United States lie in the different impacts of the Covid-19 and the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the two countries. The epidemic has affected the insufficient market supply and economic stagnation in the United States for a period of time, and the implementation of the "unlimited" quantitative easing policy, In addition, the global energy price has soared, and multiple factors have led to the current high CPI in the United States;On the contrary, China has sufficient market supply,stable monetary policy, effective control over the impact of energy prices, and moderate CPI growth. With the tightening policies of the United States, such as the interest rate rise and the shrinking table, and the stabilization of energy prices, the CPI increase is expected to fall back, and the gap between China and the United States will tend to narrow. The research of this paper will provide some reference to analyze and judge the current price trend and economic situation in China and the world.