计及能源因素影响母线负荷预测准确率的影响因素及优化策略

Factors and Optimization Strategies by Taking into Account Energy Factors that Affect the Accuracy of Bus Load Forecasting

为了优化母线负荷预测结果的准确率,采用两阶段还原方法还原出母线净负荷。其根本预测思路为分解、预测、还原,但该方法对于母线负荷预测准确率的影响较大。利用神经网络方法针对母线负荷建立预测模型的,以此达到优化母线负荷预测准确率的目的。这种方法从整体提升母线负荷预测的准确率,结合小波分解的方法,为电网的安全性能营造良好的技术监督手段。

In order to optimize the accuracy of bus load prediction results, a two-stage reduction method is used to restore the bus load. The basic forecasting idea is decomposition、prediction、reduction, but this method has great influence on the accuracy of bus load forecasting. The prediction model of bus load is established by using neural network method to optimize the accuracy of bus load prediction. This method improves the accuracy of bus load prediction as a whole, and combines with the method of wavelet decomposition to create a good supervision means for the safety performance of power grid.