中国制造业对外直接投资的去工业化效应研究

A Study on the Deindustrialization Effect of China’s Manufacturing Outward Direct Investment

“十四五”规划纲要提出应保证制造业比重的基本稳定。为探究迅速增加的制造业对外直接投资是否会对中国去工业化产生影响,基于中国2005—2018年275个地级市的面板数据,验证了中国制造业对外直接投资具有显著的去工业化效应,这一结论在一系列稳健性检验和内生性处理后依然成立。异质性分析结果表明,投资来源区域、投资主体所有制、投资动机的不同会使去工业化效应产生明显差别。机制检验表明,制造业对外直接投资主要通过直接替代效应和投资挤出效应对去工业化水平产生影响。

The outline of the 14^(th)five-year plan clearly states that the proportion of the manufacturing industry should be stable.In order to explore whether the rapidly increasing manufacturing outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)will have an impact on China’s deindustrialization,this article verifies that China’s manufacturing OFDI has a significant deindustrialization effect based on the panel data of 275 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2018,and the conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests and endogenous processing.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that differences in investment source regions,investment subject ownership,and investment motivations will produce significant differences in deindustrialization effects.Mechanism tests show that manufacturing OFDI affects the level of deindustrialization mainly through direct substitution effect and investment crowding out effect.