当前全球通货膨胀的形成和治理研究

Research on the Formation and Governance of Current Global Inflation

2022年上半年,我国价格运行基本平稳,但国际通胀形势进一步恶化,国内外形成鲜明对照。对于本轮全球通胀的形成原因,西方政府不愿正视、一再误判,甩锅新冠疫情和乌克兰危机,致使通胀形势不断恶化。回顾20世纪70年代全球通胀形成和治理过程,发现当前西方国家政府仍试图在经济增长、就业和通胀之间找到平衡,这和1979年沃尔克担任美联储主席之前的形势较为相似。由此判断,本轮通胀发展可能比市场预期的更为持久,我国将面临更大的输入性通胀压力,需要高度重视,完善应对之策。

In the first half of 2022, the price movement in China is basically stable. However, the international inflation situation has further deteriorated, and a sharp contrast has been formed at home and abroad. Regarding the reasons for the formation of this round of global inflation, western governments were reluctant to face up to it,repeatedly misjudged, and blamed the deterioration of the inflation situation on the COVID epidemic and the Ukraine crisis. Looking back at the formation and governance of global inflation in the 1970s, it is found that the current western governments are still trying to find a balance between economic growth, employment and inflation, which is similar to the situation before Volcker became the chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1979. Judging from this, the current round of inflation development may be more persistent than the market expected. China will face greater imported inflationary pressures, which requires high attention and improved countermeasures.