美国经济衰退的归因分析及其前景研判

Attribution Analysis of American Economic Recession and Its Judgment Research

作为全球第一大经济体,美国经济发展形势对世界经济具有重要影响。本文主要从经济衰退的视角,综合考察美国经济的整体状况。2022年以来,美国经济增长乏力问题逐渐凸显,经济衰退预期日趋强化。前两季度GDP环比连续负增长,“技术性”衰退已确认。但按照美国国家经济研究局(NBER)官方判定标准,由于部分指标表现依旧良好,美国经济当前还未陷入实质性衰退。然而,基于历史经验,“技术性”衰退与实质性衰退都是相伴发生的。从近期美债收益率倒挂、企业利润萎缩等前瞻性指标看,当前美国经济向全面衰退转化的风险正持续累积。研判美国经济未来发展走势,考虑到某些关键环节存在链条传导的部分滞后,未来失业率明显抬升以及房价快速回落或为美国经济实质性衰退的关键节点。

As the world’s largest economy, the economic development situation of the United States plays a significant role in guiding the prospects of world economic growth. This paper mainly reviews the overall situation of the United States economy from the perspective of economic recession. Since 2022, the problem of weak economic growth in the United States has become increasingly prominent, and the expectation of economic recession has become increasingly intensified. In the first two quarters, the US GDP continued to grow negatively month on month, and the "technical" recession has been confirmed. However, according to the official criteria of the National Bureau of Economic Research(NBER), the US economy has not yet fallen into a comprehensive recession because some indicators are still performing well.Whereas, based on historical experience, comprehensive recession always occurs together with "technical" recession. Judging from such forward-looking indicators as the recent upside down of US bond yields and shrinking corporate profits, the current risk of the US economy turning into a full-blown recession is continuing to accumulate. To study and judge the future development trend of the US economy, considering that some key links still lag behind in chain transmission, the rises in the unemployment rate and the fallen of house price in the future may be the key nodes of the comprehensive recession of the US economy.