发达国家金融危机后非常规货币政策的宏观经济效应研究——基于2008-2019年发达经济体实施超低利率与量化宽松政策效应评析

Research on the Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies after the Financial Crisis in Developed Countries——Based on the Analysis of the Effects of Ultra-low Interest Rates and Quantitative Easing Policies in Advanced Economies from 2008

2008年全球金融危机爆发后,受金融危机影响较为严重的发达国家先后采用非常规货币政策,意图帮助本国经济摆脱衰退的困境。本文对2008-2019年主要发达国家所采取的总量调整型非常规货币政策的执行效果进行实证分析。运用ARDL-ECM模型研究日本、欧元区、美国和英国总量调整的非常规货币政策在全球金融危机发生前后对宏观经济的影响,研究发现:政策性利率对经济增长的短期影响在金融危机后减弱,在金融危机后的低利率时期,没有足够的证据表明超低利率对经济增长和通胀有显著影响;样本地区量化宽松货币政策对经济增长的作用在低利率时期不尽相同:美国和欧元区量化宽松货币政策在金融危机后对通胀有显著影响。基于研究结论,需要密切关注发达国家非常规货币政策操作产生的溢出效应,不断丰富我国的货币政策工具篮子。

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, developed countries that were seriously affected by the financial crisis adopted unconventional monetary policies in order to help their economies get out of recession. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the implementation effect of the aggregate-adjusted unconventional monetary policy adopted by major developed countries from 2008 to2019.The ARDL-ECM model is used to study the macroeconomic impact of aggregate adjustments in Japan, the Euro area, the United States, and the United Kingdom before and after the global financial crisis. The research finds that: the short-term impact of policy interest rates on economic growth weakens after the financial crisis;In the period of low interest rates after the financial crisis, there is not enough evidence to show that ultra-low interest rates have a significant impact on economic growth and inflation;The effect of quantitative easing monetary policy on economic growth in the sample regions is not the same during the period of low interest rates: the quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States and the Euro area has a significant impact on inflation after the financial crisis. Based on the research conclusions, it is necessary to pay close attention to the spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy operations in developed countries, and continuously enrich China’s basket of monetary policy tools.