国际大宗商品价格走势新特征与输入性风险防范研究

Research on New Characteristics of International Commodity Price Trend and Prevention of Imported Risks

新冠疫情在全球暴发之后,国际大宗商品价格不断攀升,市场对“超级周期”形成的担忧持续存在。本文通过回顾历次国际大宗商品价格周期性波动及其主要特征,总结了近期国际大宗商品价格波动的新特征,提出了大宗商品价格变化可能产生的输入性风险。国际大宗商品价格剧烈波动主要与金融因素、地缘政治和新冠肺炎疫情影响有关,为应对国际大宗商品价格波动,更好地防范输入性风险对国内市场的冲击,应该认清形势,动态监测关键指标变化,提前防范可能出现的价格风险;财政政策合理发力,不同宏观经济政策之间形成有效配合;关注国际大宗商品来源和运输通道安全;注重防范国际市场价格风险的传导,合理对冲风险;有效保护中小企业和低收入群体,避免价格冲击造成的不利影响。

After the global outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, international commodity prices continued rising, and the market kept worrying about the formation of the "super cycle". This paper reviews the previous periodic fluctuations of international commodity prices and their main characteristics, summarizes the new characteristics of recent international commodity price fluctuations, and proposes the possible input risks arising from commodity price changes. The sharp fluctuations in international commodity prices are mainly related to financial factors, geopolitics and the impact of the COVID-19. In order to respond to the fluctuations in international commodity prices and better prevent the impact of imported risks on the domestic market, we should understand the situation, dynamically monitor the changes in key indicators, and prevent possible price risks in advance;The fiscal policy should work reasonably and form effective cooperation between different macroeconomic policies;We should pay attention to the security of international bulk commodity sources and transportation channels;Prevent the transmission of international market price risk and reasonably hedge the risk;Effectively protect small and medium-sized enterprises and low-income groups, and avoid adverse effects caused by price shocks.