基于大气污染和气温联合对人群健康效应的天津市AHI构建

Tonstruction of AHI based on the integrating health risks of exposure to air pollution and ambient temperature in Tianjin

目的基于大气污染和气温与人群寿命损失年(YLL)的暴露反应关系构建天津市空气健康指数(AHI)。方法建立2014—2019年天津市六城区大气污染、空气质量指数(AQI)、气象因素及人群非意外死亡YLL的时间序列数据库。以2014—2017年的数据作为构建集,通过广义相加模型和加权量化和模型建立大气污染混合物与人群非意外死亡YLL的暴露反应关系,通过分布滞后非线性模型建立气温与人群非意外死亡YLL的暴露反应关系,基于获得的暴露反应关系系数建立AHI。以2018—2019年的数据作为验证集,通过比较AHI、空气质量健康指数(AQHI)和空气质量指数(AQI)这三个指数与人群非意外死亡人数和非意外死亡YLL之间的暴露反应关系及模型的拟合优度,对AHI的有效性进行评估。结果AHI的建立模型为AHI t=EYLL t,大气污染+气温/475.11*10。AHI每增加1个IQR,对非意外死亡人数的超额危险度为10.61%,对非意外死亡YLL的效应值为353.37人年,均高于AQHI和AQI的相应效应值。此外,AHI模型的拟合优度均优于AQI和AQHI。结论与AQHI和AQI相比,基于大气污染和气温联合健康效应构建的AHI具有更好的人群健康风险预测能力。

Objective To construct an air health index(AHI)based on the exposure-response relationships of air pollution and ambient temperature with the years of life lost(YLL)in Tianjin.Methods The time series database of air pollution,meteorological factors,and non-accidental YLL from 2014-2019 in six urban areas of Tianjin were established.The data from 2014 to 2017 were used as the construction set to establish the exposure-response relationships of air pollution and ambient temperature with non-accidental YLL and establish the AHI model.The data from 2018 to 2019 were used as the validation set for verifying AHI.The generalized additive model(GAM)and weighted quantile sum(WQS)model were used to establish the exposure-response relationship between air pollution mixtures and non-accidental YLL.The distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was fitted to assess the exposure-response relationship between ambient temperature and non-accidental YLL.Based on these obtained coefficients,the AHI and air quality health index(AQHI)were built.By comparing the associations between AHI,air quality health index(AQHI),and air quality index(AQI)with daily mortality and YLL and model goodness of fit to evaluate the validity of AHI.Results The formula for AHI t=EYLL t,air pollution+ambient temperature/475.11*10.The validation results showed that each IQR increase in AHI was associated with a higher increase in non-accidental mortality and YLL(10.61%and 353.37 person-year)compared with the corresponding values of AQHI and AQI.In addition,the model goodness of AHI was better than AQHI and AQI model.Conclusion Compared with AQHI and AQI,the AHI based on the integrating health effects of air pollution and ambient temperature has a better health risk prediction ability.