“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放空间分析

Spatial Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Countries along the“Belt and Road”

该文基于1990-2019年“一带一路”沿线66个国家的碳排放数据、GDP数据、城镇化率数据和工业增加值占GDP比值等数据,通过Moran’s I指数进行空间自相关分析,结果表明Moran’s I指数全为正值,表明存在空间自相关性,并且呈现出“И”型变化。通过GWR模型对二氧化碳排放量5类影响因素的空间异质性进行探索,结果表明,1990年、2000年、2010年和2019年这4年人均二氧化碳排放量的影响因素存在明显的空间异质性。其中分布在东欧、南欧、西亚和中欧一带国家影响因素的影响次序大致相同,分布在东南亚、东亚、南亚和中亚一带国家的影响次序大致相同;人均GDP影响因素的回归系数均为正值,位于中亚地区周围国家的回归系数普遍较高;城镇化率影响因素的回归系数较大的国家主要分布在东欧一带以及东亚一带;产业结构回归系数较大的国家主要分布在东南亚和西亚一带,回归系数较小的国家主要分布在东欧一带;能源强度影响因素回归系数大的国家主要位于中欧、南欧和西亚一带。

Based on the carbon emission data,GDP data,urbanization rate data and industrial value added to GDP ratio of 66countries along the"Belt and Road"from 1990 to 2019,the spatial autocorrelation analysis is conducted by Moran’s I index,and the results show that the Moran’s I index is all positive,indicating the existence of spatial autocorrelation,and it shows the form of“И”type change.The GWR model was used to explore the spatial heterogeneity of the five types of factors influencing CO2emissions,and the results showed that there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the factors influencing CO2emissions per capita in 1990,2000,2010 and 2019.The regression coefficients of the factors influencing per capita GDP are all positive,and the regression coefficients of the factors influencing urbanization rate are generally higher in the countries around Central Asia;the regression coefficients of the factors influencing urbanization rate are mainly distributed in Eastern Europe and East Asia.The countries with large regression coefficients of the factors affecting urbanization rate are mainly located in Eastern Europe and East Asia;the countries with large regression coefficients of the factors affecting industrial structure are mainly located in Southeast Asia and West Asia,and the countries with small regression coefficients are mainly located in Eastern Europe;the countries with large regression coefficients of the factors affecting energy intensity are mainly located in Central and Southern Europe and West Asia.