从欧洲议会涉华议案看其对华态度恶化的原因

Explaining the European Parliament’s Worsening Perceptions of China:A Sentiment Analysis of Its China-related Resolutions

1999~2022年,欧洲议会涉华议案以人权案为主,且大多由主要党团联合发起,其中涉藏和综合人权议题重要性逐渐下降,涉港、涉疆和涉台议题逐渐成为其关注焦点。通过情感分析等统计方法发现,2016年后欧洲议会对华态度急剧恶化,涉华议案的主要特点包括抹黑内容大量增加,政策建议干预性增强,强调与盟友协调共同针对中国等。复兴欧洲(及其前身)与人民党在议案发起参与率和参与人数上显著高于其他党团,说明其是近年欧洲议会对华态度恶化的主要因素。同时,两党对华态度恶化与多重危机的冲击在时间上相吻合,说明多重危机促成了欧洲社会的进一步分化,加剧了欧洲意识形态间的极化与对立,导致了欧洲议会的碎片化趋势。出于对抗极右翼党团和实现欧洲复兴的目的,复兴欧洲和人民党都希望通过维护欧洲价值观来捍卫其地位,从而增强了对中国人权议题的关注,造成了欧洲议会对华态度持续恶化。

From 1999 to 2022,the European Parliament’s(EP)China-related resolutions were dominated by human rights issues,and most of them were jointly sponsored by major caucuses.Over the years,issues related to Tibet and general issues in human rights have gradually declined in importance while issues related to Hong Kong,Xinjiang,and Taiwan have gradually become focal points.Statistical analysis including sentiment analysis shows that the EP’s attitude towards China has taken a sharp turn for the worse after 2016,and the main features of China-related resolutions include:a dramatic increase in content smearing China and in policy suggestions that recommend intervention,and an emphasis on coordinating with allies to deal with China.Members of Renew Europe(Renew)along with its predecessor and the European People’s Party(PPE)have a significantly higher participation rate and more participants than other party caucuses,indicating that they are the main factor for the deterioration of the EP’s attitude towards China in recent years.And the worsening attitudes of the two parties towards China coincided with the onset of multiple crises,indicating that multiple crises contributed to further division of European society,exacerbating the ideological polarization and confrontation among European ideologies,and leading to the fragmentation of the EP.In order to confront extreme right-wing caucuses and promote European rejuvenation,both Renew and PPE hope to defend Europe’s status by maintaining European values,thus increasing attention to China’s human rights issues and causing the EP’s attitude towards China to continue to deteriorate.