我国化肥施用量影响因素研究

Study on the influencing factors of chemical fertilizer application in China

【目的】探索我国化肥施用量的影响因素以及作用机制,为农业绿色高质量发展提供保障。【方法】利用2000—2020年全国化肥和种植结构相关数据,对化肥施用量进行驱动因素分解,测算各因素对化肥施用量的影响作用。利用2009—2020年我国27个省份(除京津沪藏,以及港澳台地区外)的面板数据,构建计量模型,控制相关变量分析经济发展水平、种植结构、产业结构和技术因素等对我国化肥施用量的影响,并验证回归结果的稳健性以及各因素间的交叉效应。【结果】我国化肥施用量下降的主要驱动因素是种植结构。施肥强度对化肥施用量的促进作用自化肥零增长行动实施以来明显减弱。经济发展水平和产业结构对化肥施用量具有促进作用,技术因素和种植结构对化肥施用量具有抑制作用;在控制潜在的内生性问题之后回归结果依然稳健,且技术因素与其他因素存在明显的互补性与替代作用。【结论】通过提升农业技术水平与优化产业结构和种植结构可以进一步减少化肥施用量。

【Objective】To explore the influencing factors and mechanisms of chemical fertilizer application in China,and to ensure the green and high-quality development of agriculture.【Methods】Based on the relevant data of the national chemical fertilizer and planting structure from 2000 to 2020,the driving variables for chemical fertilizer application were broken down,and the impact of each component on chemical fertilizer application was calculated.Using the panel data of 27 Chinese provinces(except Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2009 to 2020,an econometric model was built,control relevant variables to analyze the influence of economic development level,planting structure,industrial structure and technical factors on chemical fertilizer application rate.The robustness of the regression results and the cross effects among the factors were verified.【Results】The main driving factor for the decline of chemical fertilizer application in China was planting structure.The impact of fertilizer intensity on chemical fertilizer application rate has been noticeably reduced since the implementation of the chemical fertilizer zero growth action.Economic development level and industrial structure promoted chemical fertilizer application,while technical factors and planting structure inhibited chemical fertilizer application.After taking into account any potential endogenous issues,the regression results remained stable,and there was clear complementarity and substitution between technical factors and other factors.【Conclusion】Chemical fertilizer application rate could be further reduced by improving industrial and planting structures as well as agricultural technologies.