预期寿命和受教育年限对延迟退休意愿的影响分析——基于临退休的劳动力样本

Analysis of the Impact of Life Expectancy and Years of Education on the Intention to Delay Retirement:Based on a Sample of the Workforce Facing Retirement

随着中国人口老龄化现象日益严重,延迟退休成为社会关注的焦点问题。文章构建了三期生命周期模型,理论推导和分析了个体的预期寿命和受教育年限对其延迟退休意愿的影响机制,进而基于Charls2018的数据,将临退休劳动力作为研究样本,实证检验了理论推导所得出的假设。研究结果发现:个体预期寿命延长会显著增加其延迟退休意愿,随着预期寿命的增加,个体倾向于延长退休后的闲暇时光,同时也会延长工作时间为老年时期增加经济来源;个体受教育年限与退休意愿之间具有非线性的U型影响关系,受教育年限较低和受教育年限较高的两个群体都表现出具有较为强烈的延迟退休意愿,受教育年限增加会促使个体为延长投资回报周期而延迟退休时间;同时高学历的个体收入较高,这又会使个体倾向于增加闲暇时长,提早退休。在调节效应方面,性别在预期寿命对预期退休年龄的影响过程中存在正向调节效应,具有相同预期寿命的女性会比男性表现出更强烈的延迟退休意愿;性别在受教育年限对预期退休年龄的影响过程中存在负向调节效应,具有相同受教育年限的男性会比女性表现出更强烈的退休意愿,但不存在复杂的U型调节作用。研究结论为政府制定更加符合劳动者预期的退休制度提供了参考。

With the aging of Chinese population becoming more and more serious,the problem of delayed retirement has become the focus of social attention. By constructing a three-stage life cycle model,the influence mechanism of individual life expectancy and years of education on individuals’ willingness to delay retirement was deduced and analyzed theoretically. Then, based on the data of Charls2018,the labor force about to retire is taken as the research sample to empirically test the inferences derived from the theory. The results show that the extension of life expectancy significantly increases the willingness to delay retirement. With the increase of life expectancy, individuals tend to extend the leisure time after retirement,and at the same time,they will extend the working time to increase economic sources for the old age. There is a nonlinear U-shaped relationship between the number of years of education and the retirement intention of individuals. The two groups with a lower number of years of education and a higher number of years of education both show a stronger desire to delay retirement. The increase of the number of years of education will prompt individuals to extend the investment return cycle and delay retirement time. At the same time,highly educated individuals have higher income,which will make individuals tend to increase leisure time and early retire. In terms of the moderating effect,gender has a positive moderating effect on the influence of life expectancy on the expected retirement age.Women with the same life expectancy will show a stronger desire to delay retirement than men. In the process of the influence of the years of education on the expected retirement age, there is a negative moderating effect. Men with the same years of education will show a stronger desire to retire than women, but there is no complex U-shaped moderating effect. The conclusions of this study provides a reference for the government to reform the retirement system and design a retirement system that is more in line with workers’ expectations.