城市福利对生育意愿的影响——基于长江经济带CFPS数据的检验

The Impact of Urban Welfare on Fertility Intention:Verification Based on CFPS Data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

我国已步入超低生育率水平行列,未来将面临严峻的低生育风险所带来的诸多挑战。文章基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),采用HLM模型研究长江经济带30市城市福利对生育意愿的影响。结果表明:第一,城市经济福利对个体生育意愿具有显著促进作用,在一定的社会福利水平基础上提高生活福利水平,不会带来个体更多生育意愿的提升,改善城市的各项环境福利水平会提升居民生育意愿,但结果不显著。第二,从个体层面来看,年龄与生育意愿呈倒“U”型关系;拥有非农业户口的居民、中共党员、幸福感最高的个体更愿意生育“两孩及以上”而并非独生子女;仍在职工作、大专及以上受教育程度的个体更倾向生育独生子女;认为“男性较女性受社会压力更大”的个体,更不愿意生育两个孩子或更多孩次。第三,根据跨层交互项系数,随着城市经济福利的增长,年龄、拥有城镇户口对个人生育意愿的影响效应逐渐减弱,在职工作对个人生育意愿的影响效应有所增强;随着社会福利的提升,在职工作、拥有城镇户口对个人生育意愿的影响效应呈弱化趋势;随着城市环境福利的提升可以增强城镇户口的居民对生育意愿的影响,即环境福利产生的边际效应为正。文章通过分析长江经济带这一我国典型先行示范区生育意愿与城市福利联系的内在逻辑,并探析城市福利对生育意愿的影响机理及内在特征,为政府出台相关政策,加强生育福利资源供给提供理论依据。

China has entered the ranks of the ultra-low fertility level,which will face many challenges brought by the severe low fertility risk in the future. Based on the 2018 China Household Tracking Survey data,this paper studies the impact of urban welfare on fertility intention in 30 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The results show that: first,urban economic welfare has a significant promoting effect on individual fertility intention. The improvement of living welfare level based on a certain level of social welfare will not bring about more improvement of individual fertility intention,while the improvement of various urban environmental welfare level will improve the fertility intention of residents,but the result is not significant. Second,from the individual level,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between age and fertility intention. The individuals with non-agricultural household registration,Party members and the highest happiness are more willing to have “two children or more” rather than the only child. The individuals who are still working and have college education or above are more likely to have the only child. And less willing to have two or more children. Thirdly, according to the cross-layer interaction coefficient,with the growth of urban economic welfare,the influence of age and urban hukou on individual fertility intention gradually decreases,while the influence of working on individual fertility intention increases. With the improvement of social welfare, the effects of working and having urban hukou on individual fertility intention tend to weaken. With the improvement of urban environmental welfare, the impact of urban hukou residents on fertility intention can be enhanced,that is,the marginal effect of environmental welfare is positive. By analyzing the internal logic of the connection between fertility intention and urban welfare in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,a typical pilot demonstration zone in China, this paper explores the influence mechanism and internal characteristics of urban welfare on fertility intention,providing a theoretical basis for the government to introduce relevant policies and strengthen the supply of fertility welfare resources.