日元汇率剧烈波动与日本货币政策关系研究

The Relationship between Sharp Fluctuation of Yen Exchange Rate and Japanese Monetary Policy

全球金融危机以来,日元汇率与货币政策关系是日本银行最棘手的问题。金融危机前后的日元升值和2021年以来日元急剧贬值期间,货币政策均成为被指责对象。日元升值背后是日美货币政策趋同引发日美利率差缩小和日元避险货币功能的强化,而当前日元贬值主要源于日美货币政策分化带来的利率差扩大,同时作为非货币政策因素的日元避险货币功能减弱和国际收支状况恶化促进日元贬值,并影响日元汇率走势。

Since the global financial crisis,the relationship between the yen exchange rate and monetary policy is the Bank of Japan’s most thorny issue.Monetary policy has been criticized during the yen’s rise before and after the financial crisis and during its sharp depreciation since 2021.The reason behind the appreciation of the yen is the narrowing of the Japan-U.S.interest rate spread and the strengthening of the function of the yen as a safe haven currency caused by the convergence of Japanese and U.S.monetary policies.While the current depreciation of the yen mainly comes from the widening of the interest rate spread caused by the divergence of Japanese and U.S.monetary policies.Meanwhile,the weakening of the function of the yen as a safe haven currency as a non-monetary policy factor and the deterioration of the international balance of payments situation promote the depreciation of the yen and affect the trend of the yen exchange rate.