恶劣天气下小型船舶航行计划决策研究

Research on Decision-making of Small Ship Navigation Plan in Severe Weather

航行船舶在遭遇恶劣天气时,船长需保证船舶安全而做出科学决策。本文运用模糊评估方法,在充分考虑了小型船舶抗风浪能力小和船员身体不适影响正常工作的前提下,提出了可供小型船舶航行决策者在恶劣天气航行时的决策模型。某拖轮运用该模型对某航次不同航行路线危险度进行了验证评估,验证结果被船长所认可。验证过程中,根据评估结果做出了科学决策,从而使拖轮付出可允许的代价后提前完成了航次任务。

When a sailing ship encounters bad weather, the captain needs to ensure the safety of the ship and make a scientific decision.Therefore, using the fuzzy evaluation method, on the premise of fully considering the small ship’s ability to resist wind and waves and the crew’s discomfort affecting the normal work, this paper puts forward a decision-making model which can be used for small ship navigation decision-makers to sail in bad weather. The model is applied to the verification and assessment of the risk degree of tugboat to different voyage routes, and the result is recognized by the captain. In the verification, a scientific decision is made according to the evaluation results, so that the tugboat completes the voyage ahead of schedule after paying the allowable price.