“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险度量与评估:基于主成分法面板数据的分析

Measure and Assessment of Investment Risks in the Countries along the Belt and Road:Based on the Principal Component Analysis

自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,我国企业“走出去”热情高涨。近年来的企业实践表明,由于企业缺乏对沿线国家诸多风险因素的认识,使得企业对外投资面临诸多问题。本文基于2012~2018年的面板数据,选取63个“一带一路”沿线国家,分别从政治风险、主权信用风险、经济风险、对华关系风险和社会弹性风险等5个方面的45个指标,采用主成分分析法评估了各国的总风险、地区分组、时间变化趋势等。稳健性分析显示,这一综合风险评估稳健性良好,评价结果具有较强的可信性和科学性,为我国企业在“一带一路”地区的对外投资风险提供了一个量化的决策参考。

Since the Belt and Road Initiatives was put forward,the enthusiasm of Chinese enterprises’“going global”has never been higher.Enterprise practices in recent years have shown that many gaps in the understanding of many aspects of risk factors in the countries along the Belt and Road have made Chinese enterprises face many risks in“going global”to invest.Based on the panel data from 2012 to 2018,this paper selects 63 countries and regions along the Belt and Road and 45 factors.This paper uses principal component analysis to evaluate the total risk,regional groupings,and time trends of countries in this time period.The robustness analysis shows that the ranking of this comprehensive risk is robust,and the evaluation results have strong credibility and scientificity.The paper provides a quantitative decision-making reference for Chinese enterprises’foreign investment risks in the Belt and Road countries and regions.