老年人活动空间的测度及影响因素——以昆明市为例

Influencing factors and measure of the activity space of the elderly:a case study of Kunming city

研究老年人的活动空间有助于更好理解老年人的出行行为,对于提高城市交通系统对社会老龄化的适应性,促进交通公平具有重要意义.采用2016年中国昆明市的居民出行调查数据和建成环境数据,对老年人活动空间的测度和影响因素进行研究.借助地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)可视化与分析工具,利用标准置信椭圆法对老年人活动空间进行测度,并对其分布特征和群体性差异进行统计分析,基于序次logit模型探究老年人活动空间的影响因素.结果表明,超过一半的老年人活动空间分布在以住址为中心的5 km2范围内,并表现出显著的群体性差异.公园密度、交叉口密度、道路网密度、商场密度、到公交站最近距离、年龄、性别、家庭结构及家庭年收入对老年人的活动空间均有显著影响.

The study on the activity space could help us better understand the travel behavior of the elderly people,which is significant for improving the adaptability of the urban transportation system to social aging and promoting the transportation equity.Using the resident trip survey and the built environment data from Kunming city in 2016,we investigate the elderly’s activity space measure and influencing factors.Firstly,the activity space of the elderly people is measured by the standard confidence ellipse method with geographic information system(GIS),and the distribution characteristics and group differences are also counted and analyzed.Then,the influencing factors of the activity space of the elderly are identified by the ordered logit model.The results demonstrate that more than half of the activity space of the elderly is distributed within five square kilometer,and shows significant group differences.The factors such as park density,intersection density,road network density,shopping mall density,the nearest distance to the bus station,age,gender,family structure and annual income have significant impacts on the activity space of the elderly.