基于二次项拟合GM(1,1)的社会总抚养比预测模型

Social Total Dependency Ratio Prediction Model Based on Quadratic Term Fitting GM(1,1)

对社会总抚养比预测问题进行分析,提出了基于二次拟合GM(1,1)的社会总抚养比预测模型。对原始数据做一次累加并利用最小二乘法做二次项拟合,基于江苏省2010—2015年抚养比数据,建立了GM(1,1)预测模型。从模型预测结果可以看出,2016—2025年,江苏省社会总抚养比和社会负担是逐年增长的。

The study analyzes the prediction of social total dependency ratio,and proposes social total dependency ratio model based on quadratic term fitting GM(1,1).The original data is summed once,and the least square method is used for quadratic fitting.Based on the data of dependency ratio in Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2015,the study establishes GM(1,1)prediction model.The prediction results of the model show that social total dependency ratio and social burden in Jiangsu Province increase year by year from 2016 to 2025.