基于时序聚类的河南省冬小麦单产演变区域差异及其对气候干湿变化的响应

Region difference of yield variability of winter wheat in Henan province based on temporal clustering and its response to climatic dry and wet variations

依托17个地级市1988-2017年单产资料,运用时序聚类方法对河南省冬小麦产量变化模式进行了空间区域划分。在气候产量提取的基础上,运用标准化降水指数(SPI)分析了不同区域冬小麦产量对气候干湿变化的响应。结果显示:基于单产时序特征的差异,通过K均值聚类将河南省划分成西部、中西部、中北部、东部4个子区域;中北部和东部地区冬小麦的稳产、增产、高产水平较高,而西部地区冬小麦的气候灾害损失风险较高;2月SPI对西部及中西部地区的冬小麦产量有着显著的正向效应,而5月和12月的SPI分别对东部、中北部地区的冬小麦产量有着显著的负向效应;西部地区冬小麦产量对关键月份气候干湿变化的响应更为敏感。

Based on the data of yield per unit area in 17 cities from 1988 to 2017,the spatial division of winter wheat yield changing modes in Henan province was carried out by using temporal clustering.On the basis of extraction of climatic yield,the responses of winter wheat yield to climatic dry and wet variations in different regions were explored by using standardized precipitation index(SPI).The results showed that Henan province was divided into four sub-regions(western area,central-western area,central-northern area and eastern area)by K-means clustering based on the difference of temporal characteristics of yield per unit area.The level of stable production,increasing production and high production of winter wheat was higher in central-northern and eastern areas,while the risk of climate disaster loss was higher in western area.The SPI in February had significantly positive effects on the yield of winter wheat in western and central-western areas,while the SPI in May and SPI in December had significantly negative effects on the yield of winter wheat in eastern and central-northern areas,respectively.Winter wheat yield in western area was more sensitive to climatic dry and wet variations.