摘要
本文从边际减排成本入手,对中国工业各行业减排空间与碳达峰进程进行考察。在采用方向距离函数非参数估计方法测算1997—2019年中国工业行业二氧化碳边际减排成本的基础上,对2020—2030年中国工业各行业边际减排成本变化趋势进行预测,研判了目前发展趋势下工业各行业碳排放达峰进程,并进一步分析其影响因素。研究发现,估算期内中国工业各行业二氧化碳边际减排成本均有明显上升,但各行业上升速度和减排空间存在较大差异。预测结果显示,现有发展趋势下我国大部分工业行业可在2030年按期实现碳达峰,部分重工业行业需加快转型速度。行业结构、能源消费结构和能源使用效率对各行业边际减排成本具有显著影响,为控制减排成本、加快碳达峰进程提供了可行思路。
Starting from the marginal abatement cost,this paper uses the non-parametric estimation method of the directional distance function to measure the marginal carbon abatement costs of China’s industrial industry from 1997 to 2019,predicts the change of the marginal emission reduction cost of various industries in China from 2020 to 2030,judges the current development trend.Moreover,The carbon emission peaking process of various industries is studied,and the influencing factors of the marginal carbon dioxide emission reduction cost are analyzed.The study finds that during the estimation period,the marginal carbon abatement costs of various industries in China have increased significantly,but there are large differences in the rate of increase and there is obvious heterogeneity in emission reduction potentials among various industries.The forecast results show that under the current development trend,most of China’s industries can reach their peaks before 2030,but some heavy industries need to speed up their transformation.Industrial structure,energy consumption structure and energy efficiency have significant impacts on the marginal carbon abatement costs of all industries,which provides a feasible idea for controlling the emission reduction cost to accelerate the process of carbon peaking.
作者
魏丽莉
侯宇琦
WEI Lili;HOU Yuqi(Institute of Green finance,Lanzhou University;School of Economics,Lanzhou University)
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
北大核心
2023年第2期63-77,共15页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(221zujbkyxs016)的资助。
关键词
边际减排成本
工业减排
碳达峰
碳中和
趋势预测
marginal abatement cost
industrial abatement
carbon peaking
carbon neutrality
trend forecast