居民自建房安全风险评估方法与应用研究

Study on the Method and Application of Safety Risk Assessment for Self-built Houses

为有效提高居民自建房风险管控能力,提出风险量化分级方法。首先,经全面辨识确定出32项居民自建房安全风险因素,应用事故树分析法构建居民自建房事故树模型。然后,使用事故树对风险因素进行定性分析,利用概率重要度和临界重要度定量分析了风险因素的重要性,进而运用改进的风险矩阵对各风险因素进行等级划分。最后,结合实际案例验证了所提出的风险分级评价方法能够较好地分析居民自建房风险,确定居民自建房安全风险等级。

In order to effectively improve the risk management and control ability of self-built houses,a risk quantification and classification method is proposed.Firstly,32 safety risk factors of self-built houses were identified comprehensively,and the accident tree model of self-built houses was constructed by using the accident tree analysis method.Then,the risk factors are qualitatively analyzed by accident tree,and the importance of risk factors is quantitatively analyzed by probability importance degree and critical importance degree.Moreover,the improved risk matrix is used to grade the risk factors.Finally,combined with a real case,it is verified that the proposed risk classification evaluation method can better analyze the risk of self-built housing and determine the safety risk level of self-built houses.