基于蒙特卡洛方法的火箭残骸落点范围预测

Landing Point Range Prediction for Rocket Wreckage Based on Monte Carlo Method

为确定残骸落区的具体范围并保证足够精度,建立了基于蒙特卡洛法的落点范围预测模型;首先通过解析法和代入法分析了分离点参数误差对残骸落点可能造成的影响,进一步分析推进剂、动基座、制导系统、分离力、高空风和残骸不定状态对分离点参数的影响或是直接作用于残骸运动过程的影响,并采用直接模拟方法在实例的基础上进行了单项的蒙特卡洛落点范围预测;确定各影响因素的形式、程度和概率分布后,进行了综合因素影响分析,将任务单位可能实际遇到的情况分为基于实测分离点参数和基于标准分离点参数的蒙特卡洛落点范围预测,根据使用场景的变化把6个单项因素适当运用到上述两种综合因素影响分析中,并给出了实例图示。

In order to determine the specific range of the danger zone and ensure sufficient accuracy, a landing point range prediction model based on Monte Carlo method is established. Firstly, the possible effect of the separation point information error on landing point is analyzed by the analytical and substation methods, then further analyzes the effects of propellant, moving base, guidance system, separating force, upper wind and uncertainty of wreckage state to separation point information, or the movement process of wreckage. Using the direct simulation method, a monomial Monte Carlo landing point range prediction is made on the base of a typical example. The form, extend and probability distribution of above factors are determined, the comprehensive influencing factors are analyzed. The possible situation is conducted the range of landing point, and the Monte Ccarlo landing point range prediction is divide into two parts, one is based on the true information of separation point, another is based on the predicting information of separation point. Six monomial Monte Carlo landing point range predictions are used to analyze the above comprehensive influencing factors, and give the graphic display. The results show that the model has more reliable and comprehensive capabilities.