县域老龄化演变及规划策略——以广西全州县为例

The Evolution of County Aging and Its Planning Strategy:A Case of Quanzhou County in Guangxi

严峻的老龄化形势使养老问题日渐突出,拟探究县域老龄化演变及规划策略以助养老问题的解决。采用老年人口系数、老年人口系数年均增长率、局部莫兰指数分析县域老龄化演变特征及机制,各乡镇老龄化程度加深且速度加快,但县城低于其他乡镇,人口平均预期寿命、人口迁移、生育政策、生育意愿的共同作用形成了县域老龄化演变机制。进而预测出各乡镇的养老压力大且中心镇和一般乡镇尤为突出的老龄化趋势,并提出发挥中低龄老年人潜能、均衡县域人口结构、创新养老模式、加强适老化建设的县域规划的策略。

The severe aging situation makes the pension problem increasingly prominent.The paper aims to explore the evolution of county aging and its planning strategies to help solve the pension problem.Using the old-age population coefficient,the average annual growth rate of the old-age population coefficient and the local Moran index,the paper analyzes the evolution characteristics and mechanism of county aging.The aging degree of each township is deepened and the aging speed is accelerated,but the county aging is lower than that of other townships.The combined action of average life expectancy,population migration,fertility policy and fertility forms the evolution mechanism of county aging.Then the paper predicts the aging trend of townships with high pension pressure,which is especially prominent in central towns and general townships.Finally,it puts forward the county planning strategies of giving full play to the potential of middle and low-age elderly,balancing the county population structure,innovating pension mode and strengthening the construction suitable for aging.