中国流动人才居留意愿和时长的空间分布及影响因素

Spatial distribution and influencing factors of migrant talents'settlement intention and settlement duration in China

基于2017年流动人口动态监测数据,引入时间的新维度,采用空间自相关等方法,在城市尺度上刻画流动人才居留状况的空间分布格局;采用多项Logistic回归,分析流动人才居留意愿和实际居留时长的影响因素。结果发现:①流动人才居留意愿与实际居留时长的空间分布格局均呈现南北差异。②流动人才的居留意愿和实际居留时长差异明显,大量人才虽然在流入地短期居留,但多有长期居留意愿。③随着人才主观居留意愿和客观居留时长增加,舒适物对人才居留的影响在增加。④影响流动人才长期居留意愿和实际长期居留的主要因素存在较大差异,流动人才长期居留意愿更大程度上受人才自身特征影响,而实际长期居留更大程度上受流入地因素影响。

In the era of knowledge economy,the importance of talents has risen to the height of national strategy.All cities have issued talent policies,which not only attract but also retain talents.Talents'settlement has a strong impact on the development of cities and even countries.Based on the dynamic monitoring data of the migrant population in 2017,this article demonstrates the spatial distribution pattern of migrant talents'settlement at the city scale using the ArcGIS spatial analysis method.Moreover,with two multinomial Logistic regression models,the determinants of settlement intention and actual settlement duration of talents are explored.The results reveal that:1)There are some north-south disparities and obvious regional agglomeration in the spatial distribution pattern of talent migrants'settlement.2)There is a significant difference between the settlement intention and actual settlement of talents.Although a large number of talents stay in the city for a short time,most of them have the desire to stay for a long time.3)As the subjective settlement intention and objective settlement duration of talents increase,the impact of amenities on talents'settlement increase.4)The differences in the main factors affecting long-term settlement intention and actual settlement of talents are remarkable.The talents'characteristics have stronger effects on long-term settlement intention of talents,whereas the effect of urban factors on the long-term actual settlement of talents is relatively stronger.Therefore,we suggest that local governments should improve various amenities such as primary and secondary schools,green spaces,libraries and social tolerance,so as to effectively promote the long-term settlement of talents.