城市群人口流动空间网络及影响因素

Spatial network and influencing factors of population flow in urban agglomeration

选取2015—2018年11个城市群的人口流动频次数据,运用复杂网络分析和QAP(Quadratic Assignment Procedure,二次指派程序)分析方法,研究不同发展阶段城市群间以及城市群内部人口流动空间网络格局及演变,进一步分析影响因素。主要结论有:①城市群间人口流动空间网络呈现明显的“钻石”结构,而城市群内部表现为不同丰度的“金字塔”结构,优化提升阶段城市群是人口流动的主体区域,其城市群内部与城市群之间人口流动空间网络结构相较于其他两个阶段更复杂。②人口流动空间网络格局相对稳定,以“胡焕庸线”为人口流动总量的分界线,在优化提升阶段的城市群作用之下,东部城市群的人口流动总频次远大于中西部,呈现出稳定的“东密西疏”结构。③城市群内部人口流动空间网络均呈现小世界特性,形成明显的以相邻城市为主体的“凝聚子群”。④城市群人口流动空间网络影响因素存在差异,舒适度水平逐渐成为人口流动的重要驱动因子。人均绿地面积、失业保险参保人数占总人口比重、人均道路面积、人均专利授权量和年均气温等在多个城市群的人口流动空间网络形成中均发挥了显著作用,而在岗职工平均工资对不同城市群的人口流动产生异质性影响。

This article selects the population flow frequency data of 11 urban agglomerations from 2015 to 2018,uses complex network analysis and QAP analysis method to study the spatial pattern and evolution of population flow among and within urban agglomerations at different stages of development,and further analyzes the influencing factors.The main conclusions are as follows:1)The spatial network of population flow among urban agglomerations shows obvious''diamond''structure,while the internal structure of urban agglomerations forms different abundance of''pyramid''structure.The urban agglomeration in the optimization and upgrading stage is the main area of population flow.The spatial network structure of population flow within and between urban agglomerations is more complex than the other two stages.2)The spatial pattern of population flow is relatively stable,and the''Hu Huanyong line''is the dividing line of the total population flow.Under the effect of urban agglomeration in the optimization and upgrading stage,the total frequency of population flow in the eastern urban agglomeration is much larger than that in the central and western regions,showing a stable''dense east and sparse west''structure.3)The spatial network of population flow in urban agglomerations shows the characteristics of small world,forming an obvious''cohesive subgroup''with adjacent cities as the main body.4)There are differences in the influencing factors of the spatial network of population flow in urban agglomerations,and the level of comfort has gradually become an important driving factor for population flow.The per capita green space area,the proportion of unemployment insurance participants in the total population,the per capita road area,the per capita patent authorization and the annual average temperature have played a significant role in the formation of the spatial network of population flow in multiple urban agglomerations.The average wage of on-the-job workers has a heterogeneous impact on the population flow of different urban agglomerations.