长江三角洲碳排放与植被覆盖耦合协调时空格局及影响因素分析

Spatio-temporal pattern of coupling coordination degree between carbon emissions and vegetation cover and its influencing factors of the Yangtze River Delta

通过构建评价指标体系和分析框架,利用综合指数法、耦合协调度模型和灰色关联度模型分析2005―2017年长江三角洲(长三角)碳排放与植被固碳耦合协调时空变化特征及驱动因素,并模拟政府决策优先级对耦合协调度趋势的影响。结果表明:长三角碳排放空间集聚特征显著,基本形成了以长江沿线和长三角东南沿海区域为核心的沿江沿海高排放带;长三角碳排放与植被固碳耦合协调度具有明显的空间分异特征,呈现出南京−上海沿线一般失调区域为核心的圈层结构特征;植被覆盖综合评价值高于碳排放综合评价值的地区耦合协调度普遍较高,人口的集聚和变化、城市建设和能源消耗对耦合协调度影响最大;同时,政府决策的优先级会显著影响耦合协调趋势。

To explore the status of coupled coordination between carbon emissions and vegetation sequestration,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and drivers of coupled coordination between carbon emissions and vegetation sequestration in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)from 2005 to 2017 were analyzed by constructing an evaluation index system and analytical framework,using the integrated index method,coupled coordination degree model and gray correlation degree model,and simulating the influence of government decision priorities on the trend of coupled coordination degree.The results show that the YRD has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics of carbon emissions,basically forming a high-emission belt along the Yangtze River and the southeastern coastal areas of the YRD.The coupling coordination degree of carbon emission and vegetation carbon sequestration has obvious spatially divergent characteristics,showing the characteristics of a circle structure with the general dysfunctional area along Nanjing-Shanghai as the core.The coupling coordination degree is generally higher in the areas where the comprehensive evaluation value of vegetation cover is higher than the comprehensive evaluation value of carbon emission,and the concentration and change of population,urban construction and energy consumption have the greatest influence on the coupling coordination degree.Meanwhile,the priority of government decisions significantly affects the coupling coordination trend.The study can provide feasible references for regional sustainable development and government development model selection.According to the research results of coupling coordination and the analysis of influencing factors,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on the coordination of economic development and ecological environmental protection in the YRD from the aspects of land use structure,industrial development,technological progress and regional coordination.The first is to optimize the spatial structure of regional land use and form a new pattern of efficient development.The second is to promote regional ecological co-protection and governance,and build a new barrier for ecological security.The third is to tap the potential of regional industrial synergy and consolidate the new advantages of innovation and cooperation.The fourth is to strengthen the research and development of green and low-carbon technologies to stimulate new momentum for green development.