新常态下服务贸易对优化我国国际收支结构的作用研究

Research on the Role of Service Trade in Optimizing China’s Balance of Payments Structure under the New Normal

当前我国经济发展由高速向高质量转变的背景下,进一步深化开放,充分发挥服务贸易对平衡国际收支、优化国内产业结构的作用愈加重要。本文通过现状分析发现,我国服务贸易近几年呈高速增长趋势,但在高技术领域与发达国家仍存在显著差距。本文依据我国1982—2020年的时间序列数据,运用无约束VAR模型实证分析了服务贸易与国际收支结构的关系。结论显示:服务贸易对国际收支结构变动具有长期稳定的影响;服务贸易逆差部分抵消了货物贸易的大额顺差,从而优化了国际收支结构。

At present, under the background of China’s economic development changing from high growth rate to high quality, it is increasingly important to further deepen the opening up and give full play to the role of service trade in balancing the international payments and optimizing the domestic industrial structure. Through the analysis of the current situation, the article finds that China’s service trade has shown a rapid growth trend in recent years, but there is still a significant gap between China and developed countries in the high-tech field. Based on China’s time series data from 1982 to 2020, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between trade in services and the structure of the balance of payments using the unconstrained VAR model. The conclusion shows that the service trade has a long-term and stable impact on the structure of the balance of payments, and the service trade deficit partially of fsets the large surplus of the goods trade, thus optimizing the structure of the balance of payments.