环境规制、产业结构优化与经济增长——基于西北地区地级城市的实证研究

Environmental Regulation, Industrial Structure Optimization and Economic Growth——An Empirical Study Based on the Panel Data of Prefecture-level Cities in Northwest China

本文应用西北地区31个地级市2010—2019年的面板数据,在测算环境规制强度及产业结构优化水平的基础上,利用面板门槛回归模型分析西北地区环境规制、产业结构优化与经济增长之间的关系,研究结果表明:(1)西北地区环境规制强度与产业结构优化指数在整体上均呈现出先下降后上升的趋势;(2)环境规制、产业结构优化与经济增长之间并非线性关系,它们与经济增长均存在较为显著的单门槛效应;(3)当环境规制作为门槛变量时,产业结构优化水平对经济增长的影响逐渐由负向作用转为正向作用,而当产业结构优化作为门槛变量时,环境规制对经济增长的促进作用呈现出加速上升的趋势。

Based on measuring the intensity of environmental regulation and the optimization level of industrial structure with the panel data of 31 prefecture-level cities in Northwest China from 2010 to 2019, this paper uses the panel threshold regression model and analyzes the relationship among environmental regulation, industrial structure and economic growth in Northwest China. The research results show that: Firstly, the intensity of environmental regulation and industrial structure optimization index in Northwest China showed a trend of fi rst decline and then increase;Secondly, there was no linear relationship among environmental regulation, industrial structure optimization and economic growth, and they all had a signifi cant threshold ef fect on economic growth;Finally, when environmental regulation was used as a threshold variable, the impact of industrial structure optimization on economic growth gradually changed from negative to positive, when industrial structure optimization was used as a threshold variable, the promotion ef fect of environmental regulation on economic growth had shown an accelerating upward trend.