基于土地利用变化的沈阳市景观生态风险评价及驱动力分析

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Driving Force Analysis Based on Shenyang Land Use Changes

东北平原自然资源丰富,是我国重要的生态屏障之一,探究其典型城市的景观生态风险演变趋势对维护东北平原生态环境的可持续发展具有重要参考意义。以沈阳市2000、2010及2020年土地利用数据为基础,利用转移矩阵分析土地利用结构变化特征,从景观生态学角度选取评价指标构建风险评价体系,基于移动窗口法进行近20年沈阳市景观生态风险评价,结合重心迁移模型探究风险区域时空演变规律,并采用岭回归模型分析各驱动因子对沈阳市景观生态风险演变的相对贡献率。结果表明:2000-2020年沈阳市土地利用类型以耕地和建设用地为主,耕地面积减少191.48 km^(2),建设用地面积增加354.44 km^(2);近20年沈阳市景观生态风险整体呈下降趋势,空间分布以中风险和较高风险区域为主,中风险区域面积逐年扩张,区域重心先向东北后向西南方向移动,较高风险区域面积不断减少,区域重心持续向东迁移;人口密度、GDP、温度、降水量及NDVI与沈阳市景观生态风险呈负相关性,高程呈正相关性,并且社会因素的影响高于自然因素的影响。

The Northeast Plain has abundant natural resources which is the important ecological barriers of China.Exploring the evolution trend of landscape ecological risks in typical cities has an important reference for maintaining the sustainable development of the ecological environment of the Northeast Plain.Based on the land use data of Shenyang in 2000,2010,and 2020,the transfer matrix was used to analyze the changes characteristics of land use structure.The evaluation indicators were selected from the perspective of landscape ecology to construct a risk evaluation system.The ecological risk evaluation of Shenyang’s landscape was conducted based on the moving window method for the past 20 years.The barycenter migration model to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of risk areas, the ridge regression model was used to analyze the relative contribution rate of driving factors to landscape ecological risk evolution in Shenyang.The results show as follows: The land use types in Shenyang are mainly cultivated land and construction land with arable land decreased by 191.48 km^(2).The area of construction land increased by 354.44 km^(2) from 2000 to 2020.In the past 20 years, the overall ecological risk of Shenyang’s landscape was declining, and the spatial distribution is dominated by the medium and higher risk areas.The center of gravity of the medium risk areas were moved to north-east and then south-west, and the center of gravity of the higher risk areas was moving to eastwards.Population density, GDP,temperature, precipitation, and NDVI were negatively correlated with ecological risk in the Shenyang landscape, while the elevation was positively correlated, and the influence of social factors was higher than the influence of natural factors.