人口老龄化对绿色创新的影响——基于STIRPAT模型和门限效应的分析

The Impact of Population Aging on Green Innovation——Analysis based on STIRPAT Model and Threshold Effect

本文基于2000—2018年省级面板数据,通过STIRPAT模型将人口老龄化与绿色创新纳入同一系统进行分析。使用固定效应的空间杜宾模型进行实证分析,结果表明:区域绿色创新的空间效应显著。从全局效应看,人口老龄化对绿色创新具有显著的正向溢出效应。空间效应分解发现,东部地区人口老龄化对本地区绿色创新有抑制作用,且具有负向的空间溢出效应;中西部地区老龄化对本地区绿色创新有促进作用,且空间溢出效应不显著。上述结果经过稳健性检验仍成立。门限效应回归结果显示:人口老龄化与绿色创新也存在驼峰型关系,当经济发展水平跨过临界值时,人口老龄化的加剧会抑制区域绿色创新。在此基础上得到启示,以期为区域绿色发展提供理论依据和对策建议。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018,the population aging and green innovation are analyzed in the same system through STIRPAT model.Using the fixed effect spatial SDM model for empirical analysis,the results show that the spatial effect of regional green innovation is significant.From the overall effect,population aging has a significant positive spillover effect on green innovation.The decomposition of spatial effect shows that the population aging in the eastern region has an inhibitory effect on the green innovation in the region,with a negative spatial spillover effect.The aging in the central and western regions has a promoting effect on the green innovation in the region,and the spatial spillover effect is not significant.After the robustness test,the above results are still valid.The threshold effect regression results show that there is also a hump relationship between population aging and green innovation.When the level of economic development crosses the critical value,the intensification of population aging will inhibit regional green innovation.On this basis,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in order to provide theoretical basis and suggestions for regional green development.