新农保政策、农村老年人劳动供给与养老模式

The New Rural Pension Scheme, Labor Supply, and the Eldercare Patterns in Rural China

随着我国老龄化、高龄化趋势不断加剧,养老成为社会发展中面临的重要问题。基于中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,在新农保政策实施的准自然条件下,运用断点回归设计方法研究了新农保政策对农村老年人劳动供给和养老模式的影响。研究结果表明:新农保政策显著降低了农村参保老年人的劳动供给水平,提高了其与成年子女分开居住和预期依靠养老金收入养老的概率,对家庭内部代际转移支付具有显著的“挤出效应”。进一步研究显示,新农保政策对老年人劳动供给和养老模式的影响存在显著的异质性特征。新农保政策对健康状况较差、中西部地区弱势老年群体的劳动供给降低程度更高,有助于提升弱势群体福利水平。建议提高新农保政策保障水平,对弱势老年群体加大政策倾斜力度,推进我国社会养老保障制度的均等化建设。

With a rapid ageing population in China, the elder care becomes an important issue in social development. In China’s rural areas, “continuous labor” is a widespread phenomenon among elders and they are in favor of the elder-care arrangement “raise children against aging”. In the absence of a stable source of income, economic pressure forces elders in rural areas to remain in labor supply, which makes them have no more leisure time to improve the quality of eldercare and welfare.In addition, living with adult children and relying on them for the elder care is a traditional concept in rural areas. However, when the family size becomes smaller, the number of empty nesters increases, and the elderly dependency ratio keeps rising, the living condition of those elders without the elder care is deteriorating, which brings great challenges to the traditional elder care model. The social welfare system secures people’s living standard and stabilizes social operations. Therefore it is necessary to improve the national overall planning system for basic old-age insurance and develop a multi-level and multi-pillar old-age insurance system. Hence, as an important part of social pension system, the implementation effect of the new rural pension scheme is highly concerned by the government and the people. The new rural pension scheme can provide a sustainable and stable cash flow as the income for elders in the rural areas. However, will it help to liberate the rural elderly from endless labor? Does it significantly alleviate the plight of the elderly in rural areas? Is the welfare level of the rural elderly effectively improved?This study examines the impact of China’s new rural pension scheme on the labor supply and the eldercare patterns of the elderly in China. Results show that China’s new rural pension scheme significantly reduces the labor supply from the elders, increases the probability of the elderly living separately from adult children, and increases the probability of relying on pensions for living. It significantly reduces the amount of transfer from adult children to their parents. Further research shows that the influence of new rural pension scheme on the labor supply and eldercare patterns is significantly heterogeneous. China’s new rural pension scheme has a higher degree of reduction in the labor supply from vulnerable groups in poor health and the Midwest, which will help improve the welfare of disadvantaged groups. It is necessary to give more policy inclinations to vulnerable groups of elders and to promote the equalization of China’s social pension system.