中国气候变化科学认识进展及未来展望——中国《第四次气候变化国家评估报告·第一部分》解读

Scientific progress and future prospects in climate change:an interpretation of Part 1 of China’s Fourth National Assessment Report on Climate Change

《第四次气候变化国家评估报告》气候变化的科学认识部分反映了自2015年以来,基于气候系统观测、古气候档案、理论研究和气候模拟等科学分析,取得的一系列关于中国气候变化的新证据、新认识,总结了中国大气、海洋、冰冻圈、生物圈等气候基本变量以及极端事件、典型区域的气候变化特征,分析了影响气候变化的自然、人类活动驱动因子的变化,预估了中国未来气候变化趋势。在此基础上,比较了此次评估报告与《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》在框架结构、结论认识等方面的新特点,指出中国气候变化评估报告体系性不断丰富、科学基础的认识不断深化。文章最后通过和政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估第一工作组报告的初步比较,提出了未来我国在气候变化监测诊断、检测归因、模拟预估,以及工具方法等方面应加强的内容。

The‘Scientific Understanding of Climate Change’part of China’s Fourth National Assessment Report on Climate Change reflects a series of new evidence and new understanding of climate change in China since 2015,based on scientific analyses such as cli⁃mate system observations,paleoclimate archives,theoretical research,and climate modeling.This report summarizes the basic climatic variables of the atmosphere,ocean,cryosphere,and biosphere,as well as the characteristics of climate change seen in extreme events and typical regions in China.It also analyzes the changes in natural and human driving factors affecting climate change and estimates the future trends of climate change in China.Compared with the Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change,this paper identi⁃fies the new features of this assessment report in terms of the structure and conclusions.At the same time,it is pointed out that the system of China’s climate change assessment report is continuously enriched and the understanding of scientific basis is constantly deep⁃ened.The paper also makes a preliminary comparison between this report and the report of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and proposes solutions to issues concerning climate change monitoring and diag⁃nosis,detection and attribution,simulation estimation,instruments,and methods that China may face in the future.