中国“气候变化的影响、风险与适应”研究进展——中国《第四次气候变化国家评估报告·第二部分》解读

Research progress in climate change impact,risk,and adaptation:an interpretation of Part 2 of China’s Fourth National Assessment Report on Climate Change

《第四次气候变化国家评估报告》第二部分为“气候变化的影响、风险与适应”,这一部分重点关注了气候变化对中国资源环境和社会经济的影响、脆弱性与风险,以及中国在适应气候变化等方面的最新进展。报告评估显示,气候增暖在改变区域水热资源分配的同时,对水资源、海洋与海岸带、陆地生态系统等自然系统,农业、能源系统、环境、人体健康、重大工程建设等人为管理系统,以及脆弱区域产生了十分明显的影响,这种影响显示为有利和不利两个方面,总体效应表现为不利影响要远大于有利影响。未来气候变化将进一步增加各个领域和区域的风险,特别是脆弱的农牧交错带和黄土高原区域风险较为突出,同时青藏铁路、南水北调等重大工程也存在较高风险。中国在实践上实施了一系列适应气候变化的行动,在战略研究中提出有序适应气候变化的理念并设计了适应气候变化实施的路线图,但是,目前整体上对综合风险适应的研究比较薄弱,研究成果仍未能有效支撑气候变化应对工作,未来“如何适应气候变化”将是应对气候变化的一项严峻的挑战。

The second part of the Fourth National Assessment Report on Climate Change,entitled‘Impact,risk,and adaptation’,focus⁃es on the latest research progress in the impact,vulnerability,and risk of climate change on China’s resources,environment,and social economy,as well as on the adaptation to climate change.The results show that climate warming has changed the distribution of regional hydrothermal resources and affected natural systems(water resources,marine and coastal zones,terrestrial ecosystems,etc.),human management systems(agriculture,energy systems,environmental pollution,human health,major project construction,etc.),as well as vulnerable regions and the whole country.The climate change shows two effects:positive and negative,but in general,the negative ef⁃fect is much greater than the positive effect.In addition,the future climate change scenario will further increase the risks in all sectors and regions,especially in the fragile agricultural and pastoral ecotone and the Loess Plateau,and put the Qinghai-Tibet Railway,South-North Water Transfer,and other major projects at high risk.To adapt to climate change,the Chinese government has carried out a series of actions,proposed the concept of sequenced adaptation,and designed an implementation roadmap.However,studies in the field of in⁃tegrated risk and adaptation are still limited,and the research results are still unable to support an effective response to climate change.Future adaptation actions to cope with climate change will face significant challenges.