基于共同前沿生产理论的中国建筑业碳排放驱动因素分解:2000—2020年

Decomposition analysis of driving factors of carbon emissions in China’s construction industry based on meta‑frontier‑production theory:2000-2020

建筑业是能源消耗和碳排放“大户”,识别中国建筑业碳排放的变化趋势与驱动因素,有助于厘清近年来中国建筑业低碳发展过程中政策的适用性。文章基于2000—2020年中国建筑业省级面板数据,采用共同前沿生产理论分解分析方法,并将空间异质性和规模报酬变化纳入分析框架,揭示多维技术和效率因素对中国建筑业碳排放的实际影响。研究结果表明:①研究期间内建筑业碳排放表现出显著的增长趋势。其中,节能技术和产出技术的进步是抑制建筑业碳排放增长的重要因素。区域间节能技术和产出技术差距均有所缩小、建筑业管理效率小幅度提高,对碳减排起到了促进作用。建筑业总产值的增长、建筑业规模效率的降低又是其碳排放增长的主要因素。②分地区来看,中西部地区在技术层面与东部地区形成追赶效应,这种追赶效应成为中西部地区的主要减排因素。东部和中部地区的建筑业规模效率不断下降,成为碳排放呈现总体增长趋势的主要原因。西部地区能源导向型规模效率得到提升,而产出导向型规模效率又有所下降,对该区域建筑业碳排放形成对冲效应。整体来看,不同区域间建筑业碳排放的变化及其驱动因素效应表现出明显差异,未来应根据不同区域的具体情况制定有针对性的建筑业碳减排方案。

As a major energy consumer and carbon emitter,the low-carbon development transformation of China’s construction industry has attracted increasing attention.Clarifying the change trends and driving factors of carbon emissions in China’s construction industry is helpful in understanding the application of relevant policies in the low-carbon development of this industry.In this context,by using provincial panel data of China’s construction industry from 2000 to 2020 and combining the meta-frontier-production theory with the in⁃dex decomposition model,this paper incorporated spatial heterogeneity and returns to scale changes into the analysis framework to re⁃veal the actual effects of multidimensional technology and efficiency factors on carbon emissions of China’s construction industry.The results showed that:①Carbon emissions from the construction industry showed a significant growth trend during the study period,and the progress of energy-saving technology and output technology were the most important factors in restraining the growth of carbon emis⁃sions.Inter-regional gaps in energy-saving and output technologies were narrowed,and the management efficiency of the construction industry improved slightly,which facilitated emission reduction.The growth of the total output value of the construction industry and the decline in scale efficiency were the main factors for the growth of carbon emissions.②The central and western regions had a catchup effect with the eastern regions in terms of technology,which became the main emission reduction factor in these two regions.The de⁃cline in scale efficiency in the construction industry in the eastern and central regions led to a rise in carbon emissions.Energy-oriented scale efficiency went up in the western region,while output-oriented scale efficiency went down,which had hedging effects on the car⁃bon emissions of the construction industry in the region.On the whole,the changes and driving factors of carbon emissions in different regions’construction industries showed significant differences.In the future,targeted carbon emission reduction schemes for the con⁃struction industry should be formulated according to the specific situations of different regions.