中国制造业结构演化及影响因素研究

Research on the Evolution of China’s Manufacturing Structure and Its Influencing Factors

从高度化和合理化两个方面研究中国制造业结构升级优化过程中所存在的问题。研究发现,2012—2019年中国制造业的合理化和高度化发展具有以下特点:不同要素密集度行业间的合理化和高度化水平差异显著;制造业的合理化和高度化发展具有高度的相关性;东中部地区制造业结构以块状分布发展,西部地区表现为以陕川渝为中心向外扩散的扇形分布结构。对构建的面板模型进行的参数估计结果显示,过高的资产负债率及不合理的R&D投入会对制造业的升级优化产生抑制作用;资产负债率影响着制造业各要素密集型行业的升级优化;大数据技术在制造业结构演化中尚未起到主导应用,大数据发展对制造业结构的影响具有区域异质性;东中部的R&D投入存在过剩问题,有转移到西部和东北地区的需求。

This paper studies the problems existing in the process of optimizing the structure of China’s manufacturing industry from the two aspects of upgrading and rationalization.It is found that the rationalization and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry from 2012-2019 is characterized by significant differences in the level of rationalization and upgrading among industries with different factor intensive.The rationalization and upgrading of manufacturing industries are highly correlated.The manufacturing structure in the east-central region shows a block-shaped distribution,while in the west it shows a fan-shaped distribution structure with Shaanxi,Sichuan,and Chongqing as the center and spreading outward.The parameter estimation results of the constructed panel model show that the excessive asset-liability ratio and unreasonable R&D investment will inhibit the upgrading and optimization of the manufacturing industry.The asset-liability ratio affects the upgrading and optimization of factor-intensive industries in the manufacturing industry.Big data technology has not played a leading application in the evolution of manufacturing structure,and on which the impact of big data development has regional heterogeneity.Given excess R&D investment in the eastern and central regions,there is a need to transfer it to the western and northeastern regions.