数字经济能否缓解中国发展不平衡不充分的局面?

Could the Digital Economy Alleviate the Situation of Unbalanced and Insufficient Development in China?

本文旨在测算2013—2019年中国省际层面的平衡充分发展水平,利用面板固定效应模型、面板分位数模型和空间面板杜宾模型分析数字经济对平衡充分发展的影响效应,探索数字经济是否能够缓解中国发展不平衡不充分的局面。研究发现:数字经济对平衡充分发展有积极影响,经过内生性检验和稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立,且随着数字经济发展水平的不断提高,该影响在不断加强,说明数字经济能够改善区域内部发展不平衡不充分的局面;相比较于东部地区和平衡充分发展高水平地区,数字经济在中西部地区和低水平地区的影响更大,说明数字经济对区域之间不平衡不充分发展的局面有一定的改善作用;空间效应分析表明,数字经济存在空间溢出效应,不仅能提升本地区的平衡充分发展水平,也同样有助于提高周边地区的平衡充分发展水平。因此,本文为数字经济改善中国发展不平衡不充分的局面提供数据支撑和分析视角,也为探寻平衡充分发展的提升路径提供政策参考。

This paper aims to measure the level of balanced and sufficient development at the provincial level in China from 2013 to 2019 with the methods of panel entropy and three-stage DEA,and to analyze the impact of digital economy on the balanced and sufficient development with the models of panel quantile and the spatial panel Durbin.The main findings are as follows.The digital economy has a positive impact on balanced and sufficient development.With the increasing development of the digital economy,the influence is continuously strengthening,which indicates that the digital economy can alleviate the situation of unbalanced and insufficient development within regions.More precisely,the digital economy has a greater impact in the midwestern regions and low-level regions of balanced and sufficient development than in the eastern regions and high-level regions,which indicates that the digital economy can alleviate the situation of unbalanced and insufficient development between regions.Spatial effect analysis shows that the digital economy has a spatial spillover effect,which can not only improve balanced and sufficient development of the region,but also help improve balanced and sufficient development in the surrounding areas.