数字普惠金融能够促进城乡融合发展吗?——基于门槛效应模型的实证检验

Can Digital Inclusive Finance Promote Urban-rural Integration?——Empirical Test Based on Threshold Effect Model

本文基于2011—2020年30个省份的面板数据,构建城乡融合发展水平指数评价体系,使用熵权法进行测度,运用固定效应模型分析数字普惠金融对城乡融合是否存在促进作用,运用门槛模型实证检验了数字普惠金融发展水平及其覆盖广度、使用深度、数字化程度和传统金融发展水平,对于城乡融合发展的非线性作用。分析发现:数字普惠金融对城乡融合发展具有显著正向影响作用;数字普惠金融发展水平及其覆盖广度、使用深度和数字化程度对城乡融合发展具有显著门槛效应,且正向影响随门槛值的提高逐渐增加;传统金融发展水平在数字普惠金融与城乡融合发展间存在显著门槛效应,随着传统金融不断发展,数字普惠金融对城乡融合发展的推动作用呈现出“倒U型”关系。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2011 to 2020,this paper establishes an index evaluation system for urban-rural integration development level,measures the index with the entropy weight method,analyzes the effect of digital inclusive finance on urban-rural integration development with fixed effect model,tests the non-linear effect of the development level of digital financial inclusion,digital inclusive finance and traditional finance development level on urban-rural integration by using the threshold model.The results show that digital inclusive finance has a significant positive impact on urban-rural integration;the coverage,application depth and digitalization degree of digital inclusive finance have significant threshold effect on urban-rural integration development,and the positive impact gradually increases with the increase of threshold value;the development level of traditional finance has also a significant threshold effect on the relationship between digital inclusive finance and integrated urban-rural development,which presents an“inverted U”relationship with the continuous development of traditional finance.