数字人民币、国际经贸联系与宏观经济波动

Digital RMB,International Economy-Trade Connection and Macroeconomic Fluctuation

人民币国际化和数字化是中国经济高质量发展的重要动力,因此,从国际经济的视角来研究数字人民币的影响具有十分重要的理论和实践价值。基于数字人民币流动性服务和资产服务特征的两国动态随机一般均衡模型,对数字人民币发行、跨境使用的国际经济效应的分析结果表明,数字人民币发行与跨境使用可以稳定由外生技术和政策冲击引起的本国经济波动,同时加强中外经济与金融联系,且主要是通过加强国际贸易与国际金融联系来实现。数字人民币的跨境使用限制差异对本国经济的影响有限,但对外国的数字人民币持有和净出口有较大影响。数字人民币的流动性越强,越能稳定本国冲击造成的宏观经济波动,但可能会加剧国际经济波动。以上结论意味着,中国人民银行可以分环节、分步骤、有序推进数字人民币跨境使用试点,并注重对跨境使用限制的动态调整以及国际经济政策协调。

The internationalization and digitization of RMB is the significa nt driving force for China’s high-quality economic development,therefore,it has significant theratical and practical values to study the impact of digital RMB from the perspective of international economy.Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the two countries with the characteristics of the liquidity service and asset service of digital RMB,this paper conducts an analysis of the international economic effect of the issuance and cross-border use of digital RMB.The findings show that the issuance and cross-border use of digital RMB can stabilize domestic economic fluctuations caused by exogenous technical and policy shocks,while strengthening economic and financial ties between China and foreign countries,which is mainly achieved by strengthening the ties between international trade and international finance.The difference in therestrictions on cross-border use of digital RMB has a limited impact on the domestic economy,but has a greater impact on the holdings of digital RMB in foreign countries and the net exports.The stronger the liquidity of digital RMB,the more stable the macroeconomic fluctuation caused by domestic shocks will be,but it may exacerbate international economic fluctuations.The above conclusions suggest that the People’s Bank of China can promote the pilots of cross-border use of digital RMB in a step-by-step and orderly manner,and pay attention to the dynamic adjustment of the cross-border use restrictions and the coordination of international economic policies.