基于时序指数平滑法的冷库能耗预测模型构建

Construction of Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Cold Store Based on Time Series Exponential Smoothing Method

冷库的能耗是影响冷库运营企业运营成本的直接因素,通过构建合理的冷库能耗预测模型,可以对冷库短期内的能耗进行预测,从而为冷链物流企业未来的财务分析和决策提供依据。以银川市某冷链物流公司旗下运营的两座冷库为例,运用时序指数平滑的方法构建冷库能耗预测模型,预测冷库未来短期内的能耗发生趋势,并用冷库能耗的实际发生值和模型的预测结果相对比,验证预测模型的合理性,为企业未来的冷库运营策略提供参考。

The energy consumption of cold storage is the direct factor that affects the operation cost of cold storage operation enterprises. By building a reasonable energy consumption prediction model of cold storage, the energy consumption of cold storage in the short term can be predicted, thus providing a basis for the future financial analysis and decision-making of cold chain logistics enterprises. Take two cold stores operated by a cold chain logistics company in Yinchuan as an example, use the time series exponential smoothing method to build a cold store energy consumption prediction model, predict the energy consumption trend of the cold store in the short term in the future, and compare the actual occurrence value of the cold store energy consumption with the prediction results of the model to verify the rationality of the prediction model, and provide a reference for the enterprise’s future cold store operation strategy.