“双碳”目标下江西省旅游业碳排放多情景演变研究

Multi-scenario Evolution of Tourism Carbon Emissions in Jiangxi Province under the“Carbon Peak and Neutrality”Target

“双碳”目标下区域旅游业需要积极响应,其重点和难点是碳排放的预测。本文运用终端消费并结合旅游发展系数测算了江西省2000至2019年旅游业碳排放总量,借助对数平均权重Divisia指数分解法(LMDI)对旅游业碳排放的影响因素进行研究,并结合可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)和情景分析法,对旅游业碳达峰时间进行预测。结果表明:(1)2000‒2019年间,江西旅游业碳排放量从2000年的71.365×104吨增长到2019年的2342.456×104吨,年均变化率为21.09%,旅游投资规模是该时期旅游业碳排放最主要的影响因素。(2)未来影响江西旅游业碳排放变化的主要影响因素是碳排放强度,其影响系数达到0.810,旅游收入、旅游人数和旅游业投资额的影响程度依次减弱。(3)不同情景下江西旅游业碳排放的达峰时间不同,基准情景下预计在2035年左右,年均变化率为–0.88%,在中等和低碳情景下分别在2030年和2025年左右实现碳达峰,年均变化率分别为–1.11%和–1.58%,表明政府低碳政策对旅游业碳排放强度将产生影响,并促进江西旅游行业提前5到10年实现碳达峰目标,这为政府出台旅游低碳管理政策和措施提供依据。本研究可为区域旅游业提前实现碳达峰提供理论依据,并为全国旅游业“双碳”的预测研究提供支撑,也为其旅游业碳中和的实现提供了计量基础。

Regional tourism needs to respond positively to the“carbon peak and neutrality”target,and the key and most difficult aspect is the prediction of carbon emissions.In this paper,the total carbon emissions of the tourism industry in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2019 are calculated by using terminal consumption and the tourism development coefficient.The factors influencing the carbon emissions of the tourism industry are studied by means of logarithmic mean weight Divisia index decomposition(LMDI),and the timing of the tourism industry carbon peak is predicted by combining the extensible random environmental impact assessment model(STIRPAT)and scenario analysis method.The results show three key aspects of this system.(1)In the historical period,the carbon emissions of the tourism industry in Jiangxi Province increased from 71.365×10^(4)t in 2000 to 2342.456×10^(4)t in 2019,with an average annual change rate of 21.09%.The scale of tourism investment was the most important factor affecting the carbon emissions of tourism industry in this period.(2)The main factor that will affect the change of tourism carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province in the future is the carbon emission intensity,and its influence coefficient reaches 0.810.The degrees of influence of tourism income,tourism number and tourism investment follow in sequence.(3)The peak time of carbon emissions from tourism in Jiangxi Province varies under different scenarios.In the baseline scenario,it is estimated to be around 2035,and the average annual change rate will be–0.88%.In the medium-and low-carbon scenarios,the peak carbon emissions will be realized around 2030 and 2025,with the average annual change rates being–1.11%and–1.58%,respectively,indicating that the government’s low-carbon policy will have an impact on the carbon emission intensity of tourism and promote the tourism industry in Jiangxi Province to advance by 5 to 10 years.This study provides a theoretical basis for allowing regional tourism to achieve its carbon peak in advance,which supports the prediction of the whole country’s“carbon peak and neutrality”,and also provides a measurement basis for the realization of carbon neutralization in tourism.