中国京津冀地区主要交通运输部门二氧化碳和常规污染物减排预测

Projections of the Emission Reductions of Carbon Dioxide and Conventional Pollutants in the Major Transport Sectors of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China

交通部门是我国第三大能源消费部门,应重点减少该部门二氧化碳和空气污染物的排放。本文基于LEAP模型分析和预测了京津冀地区四个运输部门(公路、水路、铁路和航空)的能源消耗、CO_(2)和常规空气污染物(CO、NOX、SO_(2)、PM_(2.5))排放,并比较了2020–2060年间不同运输部门在不同情景下的减排潜力,最后探讨了不同控制措施对CO_(2)和四种污染物的协同减排效果。结果表明,基准情景下京津冀地区交通运输部门的CO_(2)排放量将呈现明显的上升趋势。据估计,到2060年,北京、天津和河北省的二氧化碳排放量将分别增加263.72%、225.87%和405.43%。在综合情景下,京津冀三地最大减排率分别为88.78%、76.86%和83.20%,而污染物最大减排率预计达到78.73%–99.34%。未来京津冀地区CO_(2)和污染物减排潜力较大主要是航空和公路运输部门,分别占总减排量的38.19%–99.85%。且未来对公路运输部门和航空部门实行优化能源结构措施的协同减排效果将是最好的。研究结果可为京津冀地区交通运输业制定低碳减排战略提供依据。

Many stakeholders recognize that the transport sector should be a major focus for reducing the emissions of carbon and air pollutants since it is the third largest sector for energy consumption in China.This study analyzed and projected the energy consumption and emissions of CO_(2)and conventional air pollutants(CO,NOX,SO_(2),and PM_(2.5))from four transport sectors(highway,waterway,railway and aviation)based on the LEAP model,compared the emission reduction potentials of different transport sectors under different scenarios in 2020-2060,and finally explored the co-reduction effect for CO_(2)and the four pollutants under different control measures.The results showed that the CO_(2)emissions from the transportation sectors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region would increase greatly under the baseline scenario.Estimates indicate that the CO_(2)emissions of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province would increase by 263.72%,225.87%and 405.43%in 2060,respectively.Under the comprehensive policy scenario,the emission reductions would be 88.78%,76.86%and 83.20%respectively,and the maximum emission reduction rate of pollutants is expected to reach 78.73%–99.34%.The sectors with major reduction potentials for CO2 and conventional pollutants are the aviation and road transport sectors,which contribute 38.19%–99.85%of the total,respectively.The co-reduction achieved by optimizing the energy structure in the road transport and aviation sectors would be the best.The results of this study can provide a basis for the formulation of low-carbon reduction strategies for the transport sectors in the BTH region.