拜登政府对俄政策演进的特征、动因及限度

The Evolution of Biden Administration’s Policy Toward Russia:Features,Motivations,and Limits

拜登执政初期,美国对俄政策出现新变化,呈现明显的双轨特征。一方面,拜登政府以价值观为引领继续对俄保持强硬;另一方面,美国一度寻求构建“稳定且可预期”的双边关系,积极推动美俄战略稳定对话。然而,乌克兰危机迫使拜登政府不得不二次调整对俄政策,联合盟友通过全面制裁和政治孤立实现“弱俄”以“遏俄”的战略目标。传统建制派回归及两党执政理念差异,对俄战略“三观”的延续与调整以及中国、欧洲等第三方因素是拜登政府对俄政策演进的主要动因。乌克兰危机长期延宕导致美国战略界逐步出现对俄政策反思,国内民众也更不愿承受对俄强硬的代价,美国对俄政策存在一定回调空间。但由于美俄面临地缘政治和战略认知冲突、结构性矛盾以及美国国内政治束缚,美国对俄政策演进有其限度,美俄关系难以本质逆转。同时,乌克兰危机引发美俄欧新一轮剧烈互动与博弈,深刻塑造大国关系格局,中国应在变局中抢抓机遇,为自身发展塑造良好的外部战略环境。

Since Joe Biden was elected president of the United States,new shifts in U.S.policy toward Russia have shown a distinct dual-track aspect.On the one hand,the Biden administration continues to pursue tough measures toward Russia based on its values.On the other hand,the two sides actively engaged in strategic stability dialogues,and the U.S.once attempted to establish a bilateral relationship that was"stable and predictable".But Russia-Ukraine conflict forced Biden administration to adjust its Russia policy and to achieve the strategic goal of containing Russia through comprehensive sanctions and political isolation to weaken Russia together with its allies and partners.The evolution of the Biden administration’s policy toward Russia is driven by the return of the traditional establishment and its variations in governing philosophy,the continuance and modification of strategic concepts,and third-party factors such as China and Europe.The prolonged confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has prompted a strategic community reconsideration of U.S.policy toward Russia,and the domestic public is less willing to shoulder the expense of being tough on Russia,providing some possibility for a shift in U.S.policy toward Russia.However,given geopolitical and strategic perception conflicts,structural difficulties,and significant U.S.internal politics limitations,improving their relationship in the medium term would be challenging.Meanwhile,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has sparked a new cycle of intensive interactions among the U.S.,Russia,and Europe,altering the structure of major power relations significantly.China should take advantage of the shifting circumstances to create a favorable external strategic environment for its own development.