全面推进乡村振兴下中国趋农产业发展水平的区域差异及分布动态演进

Regional differences and distribution dynamic evolution of agriculture-oriented industries development in the context of comprehensive rural revitalization in China

伴随乡村振兴战略的全面推进,乡村场域的收益预期获得持续改善,劳动力、资本等要素出现一定程度的“趋农化”流动,引致了相关产业在空间上的趋农聚集以及在功能上的适农演化,并逐步衍生出“趋农产业”这一全新业态族。采用熵值法、Dagum基尼系数法、核密度估计法以及Markov链,揭示2014—2020年中国趋农产业发展水平的区域差异以及分布动态。研究发现:(1)2014—2020年,趋农产业发展水平年均增长率约为5.43%,这一期间的基尼系数均值为0.1936,总体上呈现下降趋势,趋农产业发展的区域差距趋于缩小,其空间非均衡发展情形逐步弱化。(2)趋农产业发展差距的主要来源中,“地区间差距”这一指标贡献最大,其平均贡献率达到78.37%,显著高于“地区内差距”以及“超变密度”等指标。(3)趋农产业发展在全国层面和东部地区呈现多级分化,中部地区呈现两级分化,西部地区无极化现象,东北地区则呈现由两极分化向均衡化发展的基本态势。(4)趋农产业发展水平的等级状态较为稳定,存在“俱乐部趋同”现象,但在考虑空间效应的情形下,趋农产业发展水平的“等级锁定”概率降低。

With the comprehensive promotion of the rural revitalization strategy,the income expectations of the rural field have been continuously improved,factors such as labor and capital have a certain degree of“agriculturalization”flow,which has led to the spatial aggregation of related industries and the functional evolution of agriculture,and gradually derived a new family of“agricultural-oriented industries”.The entropy value method,the Dagum Gini coefficient method,the kernel density estimation method and the Markov chain are used to reveal the regional differences in the level of development of China’s agricultural-oriented industries and the dynamics of their distribution from 2014 to 2020.The results show that:(1)From 2014 to 2020,the average annual growth rate of China’s agriculture-oriented industries is about 5.43%,the average value of the Gini coefficient during this period is 0.1936,it shows a downward trend overall,indicates that the regional disparity in the development of agricultural industries tends to narrow,and its spatially uneven development situation is gradually weakened.(2)Among the main sources of the gap in the development of agriculture-oriented industries in China,the“inter-regional gap”has the largest contribution,with an average contribution rate of 78.37%,which is significantly higher than the“intra-regional gap”and“hyper-variable density”indicators.(3)The development of agriculture-oriented industries presented multi-level differentiation at the national level and in the eastern region,two-level differentiation in the central region,no polarization in the western region,and a basic trend from polarization to balanced development in the northeast region.(4)The development level of agriculture-oriented industries in China is relatively stable,and there is a phenomenon of“club convergence”,however,in the case of considering the spatial effect,the probability of“level lock-in”of the development level of the agricultural industry is reduced.