基于模糊评估法的社区矫正风险量化评估与防控

Quantitative evaluation and prevention and control of community correction risk based on fuzzy evaluation method

社区矫正工作开展过程中存在多种风险致因,可能导致社区服刑人员出现脱管、漏管和重新违法犯罪等重大风险。运用全球统一的ISO 3100风险管理国际标准及其风险管理理论对各种风险致因进行全面、科学的风险识别和评估,发现执行主体、民众重刑观念是当前社区矫正工作中存在的最高风险致因。为有效防控这些高风险致因,提高社区矫正工作质效,当前采取的风险防控对策的重点应放在建立一支流动的社区矫正专业队伍和将恢复性司法理念引入社区矫正工作两个方面。

There are a variety of risk causes in carrying out community corrections work,which may lead to significant risks such as escape from supervision,failure to report arrival and repeated illegal and criminal acts of prisoners in the community.After comprehensively and scientifically identifying and evaluating the causes of various risks by using the globally unified ISO3100 international standard for risk management and its risk management theory,we found that the executive subject and the people’s concept of severe punishment are the highest risk factors in the current community correction work.In order to effectively prevent and control these high-risk causes and improve the quality and efficiency of community correction,the current risk prevention and control countermeasures should focus on establishing a mobile professional team of community correction and introducing the concept of restorative justice into community correction.