环境规制加速了中国老工业城市“去工业化”吗?

Do environmental regulations aggravate the deindustrialization of Chinese old-industrial cities?

以“十一五”节能减排目标政策为外生冲击,基于双重差分法,利用中国工业企业数据和城市统计数据实证检验环境规制对中国老工业城市去工业化的影响及作用机制。研究发现:节能减排目标政策的推出并未加速全国范围去工业化,但加速了老工业城市的去工业化,同时政策效应在国有企业、高污染行业企业、资源依赖性较强城市和市场化程度较低地区的企业中更为显著。机制检验结果表明,节能减排目标政策对老工业城市去工业化的影响主要是通过资本流失和创新挤出实现的。基于此,提出通过动能转换、效率提升等应对环境规制约束下区域去工业化问题的对策建议。

Based on“the Eleventh Five-Year Plan”target emission reduction responsibility system and the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms in China,we use the DID method to test the impact of environmental regulations on deindustrialization in old industrial cities and its mechanism.We find that stronger environmental regulations don’t exacerbate the de-industrialization at the national level,but they do in old industrial bases.Furthermore,the impact is more significant in state-owned enterprises,enterprises in heavy-pollution industries,enterprises in cities with stronger resource dependence,and enterprises in areas with lower marketization degrees.The mechanism test shows that the effect is mainly caused by crowding out capital investment and innovation.Based on these results,this paper puts forward some advices to deal with regional deindustrialization under environmental regulations through driver conversion and efficiency improvement.