城市收入房价比变动与人口集聚:驱动机理与时空演化

Changes of urban housing-price to income ratio and population mobility:Driving mechanism as well as temporal and spatial evolution

利用中国城市级面板数据系统检验收入房价比对人口集聚的影响机制。研究发现:第一,收入房价比的提升能够显著促进人口集聚,它是提高城市地缘引力和人口集聚度的有效途径;第二,这一机制在二线城市表现得最为明显,同时对东部和东北地区的影响也更加显著;第三,“高收入房价比—高经济发展”型城市内,收入房价比机制将面临失效困境,这表明收入房价比对人口集聚的影响存在“瓶颈效应”,它更适用于引导人口初次分流;第四,收入房价比对人口集聚的拉动效应会随时间的推移而增强,同时还会在区域内形成辐射效应和良好的正反馈循环。因此,提高城市收入房价比将对“十四五”期间中国的城市群建设产生重要的助推作用和长期影响。

This paper uses China’s city level panel data to systematically examine the impact of housing-price to income ratio on population agglomeration.The conclusions are as follows:First,housing-price to income ratio can significantly promote population agglomeration,and it is an effective way to increase the city’s geographical attraction and population agglomeration.Second,this mechanism is most obvious in second-tier cities,and its impact on the eastern and northeastern regions is also more significant.Third,in cities with a‘high housing-price to income ratio as well as high economic development’character,the housing-price to income ratio mechanism will face the dilemma of failure,which shows that its impact on population agglomeration has a‘bottleneck effect’,and it is more suitable for guiding the initial population diversion.Fourth,the pulling effect of the housing-price to income ratio on population agglomeration will increase over time.Meanwhile,it will also form a complementary effect and a positive feedback effect within the region.Therefore,increasing the housing-price to income ratio will have a positive and profound impact on China’s urban agglomeration construction during the‘14th Five-Year Plan’period.