新能源汽车制造商分时租赁模式采用策略研究——基于商业模式比较的演化分析

EV Manufacturer’s Per-Use Rental Adoption Strategy——An Evolutionary Analysis Framework Based on Comparison of Business Models

考虑政策、技术和服务化三方面动因,构建政府补贴决策和制造商商业模式决策的演化博弈模型,研究制造商的分时租赁模式采用策略问题,并揭示新能源车补贴、新能源车技术等因素与分时租赁模式之间关系。研究发现,服务化所带来的合并效应和新能源汽车技术水平是决定商业模式的两个基本维度:合并效应决定了分时租赁的采用,而技术水平决定了销售模式的采用。两基本维度间存在互动关系,即合并效应对技术因素有补充作用和取代作用。新能源车补贴是通过影响两个基本维度,从而改变制造商的商业模式决策。制造商采用分时租赁模式的根本动机是服务化转型所带来的合并效应,而非获取新能源车补贴。在合并效应较大的情况下,分时租赁模式能够同时提高新能源汽车需求和消费者剩余。

Per-use rental models had experienced rapid growth in China from 2016 to 2019,many electric vehicle(EV)manufacturers adopted per-use rentals,even with profit loss.There are three explanations for the motivations of the manufacturers’adoption of per-use rental:First,low EV technology level is not fit for selling models.Second,for acquiring EV subsidies,manufacturers sell EVs to per-use rental operators of their own to meet the policy requirements.Third,servicizing provides the incentives for the adoption of per-use rentals.In this paper,the business model adoption strategy is investigated.Combining three incentive factors of policy,technology and servicizing,an evolutionary analysis framework is established based on a comparison of business models,in which the government makes decisions on subsidies and manufacturers decide on business models.The adoption strategy of per-use rentals is analyzed,the interaction among subsidies,technology and per-use rentals is revealed.The conclusions show that,the pooling effect in servicizing and the level of EV technology are the two basic dimensions to determine business model adoption:the pooling effect determines the adoption of per-use rentals,the level of technology determines the adoption of the selling model.There exist interactions between the two basic dimensions,that is,the pooling effect can supplement and replace the technology factors.The EV subsidies change the manufacturers’decisions on business models by influencing two basic dimensions.The fundamental motivation for manufacturers to adopt per-use rentals is the pooling effect brought by servicizing,rather than subsidies.When the pooling effect is strong,per-use rentals could improve consumer surplus and EV demand at the same time.