协议企业应急物资生产与原材料预储决策研究

Agreement Enterprise’s Decisions on the Emergency Material Production and the Raw Material Pre-storage

突发事件的不确定性为协议企业合理制订应急物资生产储备计划带来极大的困难与挑战。本文着眼于原材料储备成本和风险,构建了一个基于期权契约的应急物资供应协议合作模型,分析了协议企业在应对政府灾后采购需要时使用用于商业生产的原材料进行加急生产,但需向其商业供应链中的下游企业进行一定额度补偿情境下的应急物资预先生产与原材料预储数量决策。并在此基础上,与未建立契约合作情境进行对比和敏感度分析。研究发现,基于期权契约的应急物资采购合作可以实现政企双赢。其中,协议企业可以借助商用原材料降低应急物资需求不确定性的不利影响,但商用库存水平会直接影响其生产与储备决策。本研究通过为应急物资供应协议企业提供生产储备策略指导,为契约机制在我国社会化储备能力建设中的广泛应用助力。

Uncertainties in disasters and emergency material demands make the government authorities and rescue agencies prefer the procurement contracts with flexibilities.However,flexible procurement increases the risks faced by the agreement enterprises,and then requires them to make reasonable emergency material production and reserve plans.This is because,compared with the production capacity reserve,the response speed of pre-production materials(physical reserves)is faster and the production cost is lower.However,production capacity reserve can reduce the agreement enterprises’risk of overstocking and value loss since the government authority may not execute or partially execute the procurement contract.In this regard,most of the existing studies balance the advantages and disadvantages of the physical reserves and production capacity reserves.However,they commonly ignore a premise.That is,sufficient inventory of the raw materials that can be rapidly put into production is necessary.If the government authority dose not execute or partially executes the procurement contract,the raw material reserve will lose value as well.Enterprises usually hold a certain amount of raw material inventory for the daily production.Compared with the raw material reserve set up specially to meet the needs of the government’s emergency material procurement,using the commercial raw materials(raw materials prepared to meet the purchase orders of the downstream enterprises in the commercial supply chain)can ensure the emergency material production and avoid the backlog and value loss of the raw material reserve.However,if the enterprise uses the commercial inventory,it has to compensate its downstream enterprises(purchasers in the commercial supply chain),or faces the risk of customer churn.In this regard,it is a key problem for the agreement enterprises to formulate a reasonable emergency material production and raw material reserve plan with considering the amount of available commercial raw materials and related costs.Aiming to address this problem,an emergency material procurement model based on option contract is developed.Government’s optimal decision on the order quantity of the option is derived.Then,agreement enterprise’s decisions on the quantities of the emergency material production and raw material pre-storage are analyzed under the situation where the agreement enterprise can use commercial raw materials to meet the government’s post-disaster procurement but has to compensate its commercial downstream enterprises.Through comparing with the non-cooperation supply chain and carrying on numerical simulation calculation and sensitivity analyses,managerial insights for practical applications are proposed.Several key findings are proposed.First,it is found that the emergency material procurement cooperation based on option contract can achieve a win-win situation between the government authority and the agreement enterprise.Second,the agreement enterprises can reduce the adverse impacts of the uncertainties in the emergency material demands with the help of commercial raw materials.Third,the commercial inventory capacity of the agreement enterprise directly affects its production and reserve decisions.From the practical perspective,this study can not only provide theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the agreement enterprises to reduce the adverse impacts of the uncertainties in emergency material demands,but also provide direction and guidance for the government authority to reasonably design the agreement terms and guide more enterprises to actively participate in the cooperation of emergency material supply.