企业社会责任负面事件网络舆情演化阶段式建模分析

Staged Modeling Analysis of the Evolution of Net-mediated Public Sentiment on Corporate Social Responsibility Negative Events

在信息化时代,网络舆情的广泛性和即时性等特征加剧了企业社会责任负面事件的“传染效应”,快速改变公众的观点与认知,影响资本市场资源配置。为研究有企业参与的多主体网络舆情演化规律,本文基于“内外结合”视角,将网络舆情参与主体划分为内外影响因素,并将网络舆情蔓延过程分为两个阶段,分别采用不同的仿真模型进行深入分析。第一个阶段是网络舆情蔓延扩散阶段,以经典传染病模型为基础,构建包含有内外驱动因素影响的S-ED/ID-R模型,再以S-ED/ID-R模型为基础构建网络舆情蔓延扩散模型,分析内外影响因子之间的关联关系,并为S-ED/ID-R模型的仿真提供参数。第二个阶段是政府调控网络舆情阶段,以Lotka-Volterra竞争关系模型为基础,分别研究提前政府介入时间、增加官方微博的数量和增加官方微博发博频率三种策略的效果。最后,结合具体舆情实例对阶段式建模进行验证分析,为政府管理企业社会责任负面事件提供建议。

In the information age,the rapidity and universality of network public opinion will aggravate the’contagion effect’of negative events of corporate social responsibility,quickly change public opinions and cognition,and affect the allocation of capital market resources.In order to study the law of multi-agent network public opinion spread with enterprise participation,the network public opinion participants are divided into internal and external influencing factors based on the perspective of’internal and external integration’,and the process of network public opinion spread is divided into two stages.In the two stages,different simulation models are used to analyze the evolution process.The first stage is the spread of network public opinion diffusion stage.Based on the classical infectious disease model,the S-ED/ID-R model containing the influence of internal and external driving factors is constructed.Then,the spread and diffusion model of network public opinion is constructed based on the S-ED/ID-R model,and the correlation between internal and external influencing factors is analyzed,which provides parameters for the simulation of the S-ED/ID-R model.The second stage is the government’s regulation of network public opinion.Based on the Lotka-Volterra competitive relationship model,the effects of three strategies are studied:advance government intervention time,increase the number of official microblogs and increase the frequency of official microblogs.Finally,combined with specific public opinion examples,the stage modeling is verified and analyzed to provide suggestions for the government to manage the negative events of corporate social responsibility.